Only two games left in Premier League agenda with attention definitely on Manchester United – Liverpool derby on Sunday. Bookies’ odds and Goal Rating odds are roughly equal. Historical analysis over the last 5 seasons reveals 34 games with a rating of -12 as 67% of them finished with away win. This translates to fair odds of 1.47. After statistical modelling and smoothing our OddSmash odds stand at 1.64.
More interesting from value point of view is Sheffield United – Arsenal encounter on Monday night. Bookies are underestimating Sheffield chances with a hefty average odds of 3.9 for Home win against fair odds of 2.23 (45% chance). Draw no Bet markets and Asian Handicap might be good alternatives here.
In La Liga both Alaves and Real Sociedad respective encounters hide value for Home wins. Villarreal away chances against Espanyol are higher than priced by the bookies.
Several interesting games also in Germany and Italy.
For more in depth analysis check www.oddsmash.com
Always assess qualitative information (injuries, absents etc.) before taking a decision.